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Jan 31, 2013
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we'll see in about ten seconds. >> and rick santelli, star of the drudge report sanding by at the cme in chicago. >> there he is. >> we're going to get the numbers right now. from rick. >> and the survey says, december personal income, up 2.6. that's a nice jump. much more than expected. a positive revision on november's number. all the way up to 1% from up 0.6. the spending side, a little disappointing, up 0.2. we were expecting up 0.3. no revision to our last look. the employment cost index, also out. that's up half of one percent up 0.5. exactly as expected. jobless claims jumped 38,000! to 368,000. continuing claims moved up a bit from 3.175 million to basically a whisker shy of 3.2 million. the jobless claims jumped, steve pointed out, probably some seasonalities there. i'll let the exkrierts cipher through that. i think tomorrow is what many are looking forwar ining toward. don't dismiss the income. the income is a nice number. i'm not sure how much impact issues pulling forward some of the fiscal cliff issues might have affected that number. but i'm sure that's going to be open
we'll see in about ten seconds. >> and rick santelli, star of the drudge report sanding by at the cme in chicago. >> there he is. >> we're going to get the numbers right now. from rick. >> and the survey says, december personal income, up 2.6. that's a nice jump. much more than expected. a positive revision on november's number. all the way up to 1% from up 0.6. the spending side, a little disappointing, up 0.2. we were expecting up 0.3. no revision to our last look. the...
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Jan 18, 2013
01/13
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rick santelli, do you have any comments on this? did you -- were you listening to james galbraith, did you hear the university of texas economist on -- did you watch that? >> i didn't. i wasn't able to, joe. i apologize. >> i might send you a -- i might send it to you anyway. what do we do next year, gdp? what about earnings? >> they're all very sharp. i don't know, here's what i would say. my interpretation is you're never going to find many stock gurus that are going to give you metrics that don't work out to be somehow perceived as half full. i continue to look at growth rates. and i kind of see it half empty. but i'm glad that we agree that the glass is half, one way or the other, no matter what your interpretation is. and it's the half that i guess bothers me. i'd like to see the growth get higher. so 1.7 to 2.5 gdp growth i don't see as getting out of that range. so if you're pessimistic or optimistic, keep doing better. i think that the average guy on main street when he fills out surveys is going to keep saying you know, thi
rick santelli, do you have any comments on this? did you -- were you listening to james galbraith, did you hear the university of texas economist on -- did you watch that? >> i didn't. i wasn't able to, joe. i apologize. >> i might send you a -- i might send it to you anyway. what do we do next year, gdp? what about earnings? >> they're all very sharp. i don't know, here's what i would say. my interpretation is you're never going to find many stock gurus that are going to give...
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Jan 8, 2013
01/13
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rick santelli joins us from the cme in chicago as well. steve what are you watching? >> first i'm watching this increase we've had in the ten-year yield which has gone up as you know, 10, 15 basis points over the past several weeks. >> 1.9%. >> right, right. but we haven't seen it really in the 30-year mortgage. so i thought i would draw on, you know, rick's expertise and our expertise from our co-host this morning to try to get an idea for the direction. just want to show you some charts here. first thing is you'll see the 30-year rate remaining pretty much flat. and of course the federal reserve is going to come along and buy a whole bunch of mortgages this year. and still buy treasuries as well. what you see is the spread, i guess that's the mortgage application number that was going to be the second one showing its decline. you could see it down despite rates being low. and there's the one. there's the yields going up on the ten-year, and there's the mortgage rate being flat, so the question for individuals out there, is this the time to get in before the 30-year
rick santelli joins us from the cme in chicago as well. steve what are you watching? >> first i'm watching this increase we've had in the ten-year yield which has gone up as you know, 10, 15 basis points over the past several weeks. >> 1.9%. >> right, right. but we haven't seen it really in the 30-year mortgage. so i thought i would draw on, you know, rick's expertise and our expertise from our co-host this morning to try to get an idea for the direction. just want to show you...
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Jan 30, 2013
01/13
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. >> if i was rick santelli, i'd walk off the stage i'm so angry. if i were rick. just outrageous. >> when you see zandi ferro his brow. you know what's coming? 800 billion ids new stimulus. >> all the gdps before positive, those are the ones more accurate. if there's a silver lining in this number, buying growth, buying growth is not a good way to go because eventually you end up getting the bill. it's called an iou! >> rick, deal with this one fact -- >> put this one into gold. >> i'm not spinning nothing into gold. the things that matter most in the economy, business spending and consumer spending both got better compared to the fourth quarter. >> why don't we just have those numbers and not have gdp then, steve! >> you can look at anything you want. >> i'm looking at gdp. >> one of the brightest guys in chicago, you are free, rick. >> how many people are looking for a recession? that's why surveys don't mean anything. >> folks at home can play this game. >> you want to see the reality. this reality the economy is growing between 2 and 2.5% what it's been growin
. >> if i was rick santelli, i'd walk off the stage i'm so angry. if i were rick. just outrageous. >> when you see zandi ferro his brow. you know what's coming? 800 billion ids new stimulus. >> all the gdps before positive, those are the ones more accurate. if there's a silver lining in this number, buying growth, buying growth is not a good way to go because eventually you end up getting the bill. it's called an iou! >> rick, deal with this one fact -- >> put this...
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Jan 9, 2013
01/13
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steve liesman joins us with a report and rick santelli in chicago. look at those two guys. look at the love. i love that. steve, start us out. >> i'm sure rick is playing this game. the new game in town is gaming out when the fed gets to 6 1/2%. i have to tell you, there are time times we olympic games in the enthusiasm and the answers are unbelievable. you check your math and the math is right but the answer is still unbelievable. the first of these charts is not my work, done by morgan stanley. let me show you what david has come up with. let me explain the chart. the number of years to get to 6 1/2% unemployment. if we grow at 150,000 jobs a month and the participation rate changes over time. if we stay at the current participation rate, 6 1/2 years to 6 1/2%. watch on the right hand side as the participation rate rises, in other words, a good job market brings new people in, participation rate rises to 64.4, for this economy is not out-landish, 18 years. let me first show you work i did, another way at this. i took all the fed's projections of growth and compared it to
steve liesman joins us with a report and rick santelli in chicago. look at those two guys. look at the love. i love that. steve, start us out. >> i'm sure rick is playing this game. the new game in town is gaming out when the fed gets to 6 1/2%. i have to tell you, there are time times we olympic games in the enthusiasm and the answers are unbelievable. you check your math and the math is right but the answer is still unbelievable. the first of these charts is not my work, done by morgan...
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Jan 28, 2013
01/13
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rick santelli is standing by at the cme in chicago. steve liesman in the studio. rick? >> durable goods for december are hitting the screen. but they're hitting the screen a little bit slow in chicago. anybody seeing the data? >> nothing. >> boy, oh, boy this is what happens when you have legislation that i guess prevents public workers from getting paid. we're not getting durable goods. anyway, we will hold off. for some reason it is delayed. we are expecting a rise for december durable goods of roughly 1.9 to 1.2%. let's take the average roughly 2%. we're going to be looking for ex-energy. still don't see it. leslie, we see anything? >> there's nothing here, either. >> huh. >> we are at least welcoming this data with roughly nine-month highs on most of the yield curve, i found it fascinating that we're approaching 30 basis points on a two-year note yield which has been hovering at 24, 25 basis points for months. don't see the data. what's going on, joe, what do you think? >> who technically releases this stuff? >> i was going to stay a couple things. i'm not going to
rick santelli is standing by at the cme in chicago. steve liesman in the studio. rick? >> durable goods for december are hitting the screen. but they're hitting the screen a little bit slow in chicago. anybody seeing the data? >> nothing. >> boy, oh, boy this is what happens when you have legislation that i guess prevents public workers from getting paid. we're not getting durable goods. anyway, we will hold off. for some reason it is delayed. we are expecting a rise for...
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Jan 11, 2013
01/13
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rick santelli standing by at the cme in chicago. steve liesman in the studio. rick the numbers, please. >> all right. for the trade balance, november, is 48.7 billion. of course that's a deficit on the balance. and that's a lot of deterioration from a slightly revised 24.1 billion deficit last month. in terms of import prices, up one tenth of one% month over month. if you're looking at year over year -- i'm sorry, that's down one tenth. down 1.5 year over year. we're down 1% on export prices which is also fairly interesting. so, you know, as we look at things like energy prices move yesterday towards higher levels, we see what's going on with the interpretation with the new leadership, and almost instantaneous turn in all their data that, you know, the soft landing is alive and well. maybe even gets more regressive, is definitely doing something that normally is accomplished by a weaker dollar. which really hasn't been the case, even though yesterday was weaker. so we'll continue to monitor how these numbers figure in. really hasn't been a large move in the mar
rick santelli standing by at the cme in chicago. steve liesman in the studio. rick the numbers, please. >> all right. for the trade balance, november, is 48.7 billion. of course that's a deficit on the balance. and that's a lot of deterioration from a slightly revised 24.1 billion deficit last month. in terms of import prices, up one tenth of one% month over month. if you're looking at year over year -- i'm sorry, that's down one tenth. down 1.5 year over year. we're down 1% on export...
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Jan 24, 2013
01/13
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give the numbers. >> rick santelli would normally give the numbers. >> wow. 330. >> 330 is initial jobless claims. >> that's huge. >> yeah, that's a good number. okay and this is interesting, in that over the last -- >> that's amazing. >> we've had several different numbers that weren't that good. so this is a big thing. but, the question we have to ask your offs is, the chairman said he wants to see substantial gains in the labor market before they're going to take the foot off the pedal. so this isn't enough to bring us there yet. but this is not a bad numbers. now you take into affect in asia we have stock market tailwinds, the fact they're devaluing the yen and china is providing stimulus, and at a decent pmi so this is not bad. the chart is not giving us any reason to sell the stock market yet, either, except for the fact that it might be a little long in the tooth. >> liesman, i know you're in another country, but, it was supposed to go back up. yeah. >> they were predicting 360, joe. >> i know. >> what could cause this? >> people either getting jobs and/or not being fired. that woul
give the numbers. >> rick santelli would normally give the numbers. >> wow. 330. >> 330 is initial jobless claims. >> that's huge. >> yeah, that's a good number. okay and this is interesting, in that over the last -- >> that's amazing. >> we've had several different numbers that weren't that good. so this is a big thing. but, the question we have to ask your offs is, the chairman said he wants to see substantial gains in the labor market before they're...
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Jan 10, 2013
01/13
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santelli is standing by at the cme in chicago. and steve liesman is in studio. we're going to get our numbers from rick. i don't know whether rick did the alarm clock. rick what are the numbers? >> people have been demanding it. >> alarm clock, we're we go. 371,000 on claims. that's an increase of 4,000 from the revised number, which turns out to be 367,000 for last week. but it was originally reported at 372,000. so if we had left it the same we'd be down one with the revision we're up four. neither, in my opinion, is going to sway the ship of opinion one way or the other. continuing claims, though, took a bit of a dip. and there's a different time line to continuing claims. originally released at about 3.25 million. they were downgraded a bit to 3.236 and now they're at 3.109 so about 3.11. indeed there is a drop there. so many places for news. obviously what's going on with china between their imports and exports gives us a logical response in the u.s. marketplace, what's good for global horsepower should be good for selling off in the fixed income markets. w
santelli is standing by at the cme in chicago. and steve liesman is in studio. we're going to get our numbers from rick. i don't know whether rick did the alarm clock. rick what are the numbers? >> people have been demanding it. >> alarm clock, we're we go. 371,000 on claims. that's an increase of 4,000 from the revised number, which turns out to be 367,000 for last week. but it was originally reported at 372,000. so if we had left it the same we'd be down one with the revision...
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Jan 4, 2013
01/13
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bob doll, jared bernstein, kelly evans, rick santelli and steve liesman map kelly, any thoughts on these numbers? >> you know, the average hourly earnings piece is interesting because we saw a big jump in november and that continued. we've often in these surveys had a strong month followed by a weak month. in the last couple of months, actually a much more consistent pace of job growth. >> was it up 0.2%? >> average hourly earnings up 0.3%. that followed a 4 cent increase the power month. we're still weak but there's more traction and more consistency with those reports. that's true in the headline figure, too. adding 15,000, almost right in line. >> that is average hourly earnings because that is usually a precursor before companies start adding additional employees. >> remember a little longer work week before they put other people on the fay roll. >> we're also heading into a year where we're going to see a hit to payroll to take home pay because of what just happened with the fiscal cliff. you want to see these increases, because that year over year is still weak. at least there's si
bob doll, jared bernstein, kelly evans, rick santelli and steve liesman map kelly, any thoughts on these numbers? >> you know, the average hourly earnings piece is interesting because we saw a big jump in november and that continued. we've often in these surveys had a strong month followed by a weak month. in the last couple of months, actually a much more consistent pace of job growth. >> was it up 0.2%? >> average hourly earnings up 0.3%. that followed a 4 cent increase the...
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Jan 3, 2013
01/13
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rick santelli is standing by at the cme. steve liesman is here. rick, we'll send it to you for the numbers. >> we see a 10,000 jump from a revised last week. originally 350, moved up to 362, tag on 10,000 you arrive at 372,000. the current read on initial claims. and then, if you adjust the time setting a little bit you end up with an increase on the continuing claims from 3.2 to 3.24 1/2 million. there's going to be a lot of debate on this with the holidays, and all these other seasonalities that affect the jobless claims. but indeed it is a bump up. i still don't know if it's going to give you any clues about jobs. people are still digest iing th better than expected adp. but i constantly hear on the floor they can't get a handle on it. it's been changed. they retro fitted it. will they change it again? you're supposed to look at it two months forward, two months back currently. i don't know if it gives us clues but people will cheat a little bit, not in a bad kind of illegal way. but you will see, even though it's less than 24 hours away, most
rick santelli is standing by at the cme. steve liesman is here. rick, we'll send it to you for the numbers. >> we see a 10,000 jump from a revised last week. originally 350, moved up to 362, tag on 10,000 you arrive at 372,000. the current read on initial claims. and then, if you adjust the time setting a little bit you end up with an increase on the continuing claims from 3.2 to 3.24 1/2 million. there's going to be a lot of debate on this with the holidays, and all these other...
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Jan 7, 2013
01/13
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cnbc's rick santelli, options action contributor scott nation join us from the cme in chicago. on set this morning. scott nation. got to start with you, get your feelings on whether with the six, you know, being pretty quiet and a lot of us like to climb a wall of worry and maybe the complacency goes up as we get towards the high end of the range, do we keep moving higher to get the dow up to five-year high as well for example? >> the vix would absolutely say yes. i mean it got crushed last week. and it was probably overdone. almost certainly overdone down 37% in about three days. i think the last week action in the vix was most of the vix dropped in a week in about 20 years. and with a vix that low there's certainly a ton of complacency. there's no fear. that's overdone. i mean with the s&p at 1460, as we go into earnings season, i would think that you would have to at least be a little worried. last earnings cycle, october, was not particularly good for the s&p. dropped about 2% during the course of october. and while we're past some of the worst of the political problems, an
cnbc's rick santelli, options action contributor scott nation join us from the cme in chicago. on set this morning. scott nation. got to start with you, get your feelings on whether with the six, you know, being pretty quiet and a lot of us like to climb a wall of worry and maybe the complacency goes up as we get towards the high end of the range, do we keep moving higher to get the dow up to five-year high as well for example? >> the vix would absolutely say yes. i mean it got crushed...